Another Year, Another Cycle

I know I have not been great about writing these, but with the new Head Coaching cycle starting to get on it's way, I figured now is as good of a time as any.

Reminder, teams can't officially meet with potential head coach candidates until a week from today (January 17th, 2023) but that doesn't mean rumors won't get around or teams won't meet with coaches that rule doesn't pertain too, like Michigan Head Coach Jim Harbaugh.

Let's start there actually: Jim Harbaugh

It truly is another year, another cycle for him. Every year since taking the Michigan job he has been rumored to be in the NFL Coaching Cycle in some shape or form. Last year seemed like the year he would finally make the jump. He finally beat Ohio State, won a Big Ten Championship, and made it to the College Football Playoff. However, as much as he (apparently) wanted the NFL, the NFL did not want him back as much.

From all reports it appears that Harbaugh highly coveted the Minnesota Vikings job a year ago and felt he had it if he wanted it. The Vikings decided they wanted to go in another direction though, which left Harbaugh to say he was "done pursuing the NFL".

(Couldn't even make it a full year into that lie).

Now, it appears he wants another crack at the NFL, already being rumored to have interest in the Carolina Panthers (who said they don't have interest) and Denver Broncos jobs (which was reported he has virtually interviewed with).

If I was Jim Harbaugh, I would wait another year for an NFL job. There is no Minnesota Vikings job this year, unless you feel you can turn around Russell Wilson.

For Harbaugh, it would make sense to me for him to run it back one more year at Michigan. Most of his roster is coming back, including Heisman Contending Running Back, Blake Corum, and his QB JJ McCarthy. He has a good chance to three-peat as a Big Ten Champion and make it back to the CFP. Especially with the uncertainty Ohio State has at QB this year, he could make it three straight years of beating OSU as well when they play in the Big House this upcoming season.

So why not stay one more year, dominate the Big Ten for another season before USC and UCLA arrive and THEN make the jump to the NFL?

Maybe the NCAA's recent investigation into him as him looking harder for NFL jobs this year. I ultimately think he returns, but for this I will operate assuming he gets interest from the NFL.

How Do The Jobs Look This Year?

Honestly, not great.

You have Denver, who on paper and in Madden Franchise mode looks great. Talented WR's, good RB coming off of an ACL injury, some pieces on the offensive line, and also a defense that was one of the best in the league. The issue? Do you trust Russ in the kitchen? If you do and think this past season was a fluke, it's a great job for someone like Harbaugh or Sean Payton. If you have questions about him, with his contract, then don't touch this job with a ten-foot pole.

Other jobs are Indianapolis Colts, which hold a Top 5 pick, have some building blocks but ultimately struggled and looked like the worst team in the NFL down the stretch. With no QB, you are hoping you can move up in the draft to get one, potentially trying to jump the Texans who have the second overall pick.

That brings me to what I think could actually be the best job opening strictly based off of the roster: The Houston Texans. Two bookend tackles, a young and talented secondary, a stud at running back, and other pieces to build off of. Oh yeah, they also have tons of draft capital (Thanks Cleveland) including the second overall pick and an additional pick in the first round. If done right, Houston can quickly turn things around with the right man leading the way. Problem? Ownership and Front Office might be one of the worst in the NFL. They have now fired two coaches in back-to-back years after one-and-done seasons, and will be looking for their fourth coach in as many years. So if coaches stay away I understand.

Carolina Panthers is not a bad job either. Good offensive line, and some good WRs. Defense is one you can win with. But no QB and question marks on ownership can make this a hard pass for some.

Arizona Cardinals job might be the worst of the bunch. Weak ownership and no GM. Outside of QB (if you trust Kyler) what do they really have to build off of? Subpar at best weapons, poor offensive line, defense that ranked in the bottom half of the league, and a bunch of old, declining players (this even with the retirement of JJ Watt). I can understand why they might just promote DC Vance Joseph because they might not get any legitimate interest from viable candidates.

Who Are the Candidates?

Well, of course Harbaugh and also Payton are up there. For a team to get Payton, they would have to make a deal with the New Orleans Saints, who want ATLEAST a first round pick. Apparently Denver has already discussed compensation with the New Orleans.

Jim Caldwell is another one to keep an eye on. I have felt he has deserved another chance to be a Head Coach for a while. He was fired WAY to early in Detroit. Panthers have apparently had interest, which I think would be a good hire.

Other Former HCs

Cowboys DC Dan Quinn

Bills DC Leslie Frazer

Former Colts HC Frank Reich

Steelers LB Coach Brian Flores

Quinn seems like the most likely from this group to get another chance to be a head coach, though Frazer should have a realistic possibility. I think Reich takes an OC job somewhere, while Flores probably becomes a DC for a team (Cleveland asked to interview for open DC job).

Besides Harbaugh, there aren't many other college coaches to consider. Former Stanford HC David Shaw is a possibility, though he probably goes into TV.

Been Around the Mill Before

Chiefs OC Eric Bieniemy

Cowboys OC Kellen Moore

Eagles DC Jonathan Gannon

49ers DC DeMeco Ryans

I think the two DC's get SERIOUS looks this year. Gannon was allegedly a finalist for the Texans job a year ago and should be in the running again this year. Ryans is the leader of one of, if not THE, best defense in the NFL and could have a Robert Saleh type impact on his next team. Texans should consider Ryans too.

Hard for me to see Bieniemy or Moore taking jobs this year. I think they stay put, though if Bieniemy likes what Houston has to offer and wants a chance to develop his own QB, that is a possibility.

New Kids on the Block

Lions OC Ben Johnson

Lions DC Aaron Glenn

Eagles OC Shane Steichen

Broncos DC Ejiro Evero

Bills OC Ken Dorsey

Bengals OC Brian Callahan

Seahawks OC Shane Waldron

Lions really did go from needing to find a new HC because they fired him, to potentially needing to find two new coordinators because they were plucked away for head coaching jobs, didn't they? I think both Lions coordinators stay in Detroit for one more year, but I wouldn't be surprised if Johnson takes a HC job.

Eagles are another team with multiple coaches who will be considered for a head job, and Steichen is going to get a lot of consideration for the work he helped to with Jalen Hurts and one of the best offenses in football.

I thought when the Broncos fired Nathaniel Hackett they should have promoted Evero to Intern HC to give him a try out. His defenses were what kept the Broncos in games all season long, and I felt he was the best coach on that staff (not saying much). However, they did not. BUT if the Broncos don't land Payton or hire Harbaugh they should definitely consider promoting Evero.

The other OC's, Dorsey, Callahan, and Waldron have all done very well with their situations and every year teams try to find the next young and bright offensive mind, so any one of these three could be what a team believes they are looking for.

Predictions

I won't go all the way and predict EVERY head coaching vacancy, but I will make some predictions on what I think happens along with adding what I think SHOULD happen.

- Denver Broncos hire Sean Payton. If Payton loves Russell Wilson and thinks he can make it work, why shouldn't he take this job? Sure it is a tough division, but he can still make it to the playoffs at the very least with capable offensive play. Broncos will trade a 1st round pick this year and a day three pick as well to acquire Payton.

-If Jim Harbaugh decides to go to an NFL team, it will be the Indianapolis Colts. He has history with Colts and is in their Ring of Honor. No, I don't think he should make the jump (like mentioned earlier) but if he does I like this fit. He has Johnathan Taylor to feed at RB, and we all know how much he loves to run the ball. Also, Colts are in position to draft a new QB either by staying at 4 our jumping up to #1 overall (the best QBs in Colts history were drafted #1 overall). How awkward would it be if CJ Stroud was drafted by the coach who he could never beat while in college?

- Texans will hire some offensive assistant. I think they should hire Gannon from the Eagles, but with the 99.9% chance they draft a new QB this year, they will want an offensive mind to groom him. Probably a guy like Steichen from the Eagles or Bieniemy?

- *BONUS* Josh McCown is finally on the Texans coaching staff in some capacity.

Probably not as the HC, but could see him being the QB Coach.

-Whoever the Cardinals and Panthers hire won't be with those teams after 3 years. Especially the Cardinals job, I don't see a coach surviving that.

-One more HC job will open. I wouldn't be surprised at all if Sean McVay decides to step down as HC of the Rams, which could open the door for DC Raheem Morris to take over. Maybe a situation like the Arians-Bowles situation from a year ago arises?

The NFL Coaching Carousel is just getting started, and it will be VERY interesting to see who gets hired where. There is always some major shocker, so that will be interesting to see what that shocker ends up being.

Hopefully this cycle is as entertaining as they always are.